Lancet Oncology: Global breast cancer cases could surge to 3.5M by 2050

An analysis published March 2 in Lancet Oncology has reported that annual new cases of breast cancer around the world could increase from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million by 2050.

The study also found that yearly deaths could increase by 44%, climbing from 764,000 to nearly 1.4 million during the same time frame, wrote a team led by research scientist Kayleigh Bhangdia of the University of Washington in Seattle. Bhangdia noted that this burden is not shared equally around the world.

"Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women's lives and communities," she said in a statement released by the journal. "While those in high-income countries typically benefit from screening and more timely diagnosis and comprehensive treatment strategies, the mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage, more limited access to quality care, and higher death rates that are threatening to eclipse progress in women's health."

In fact, although women in low- and lower-middle-income countries account for only 27% of new cases globally, they bear more than 45% of all breast cancer-related ill health and early deaths -- a disparity driven by shortages of radiotherapy equipment, chemotherapy drugs, and the high cost of care, the investigators explained.

The study used data from population-based cancer registries, registration systems, and interviews with family members or caregivers of women who have died from breast cancer and provided updated global, regional, and national analysis of women's breast cancer burden and risk factor estimates from 1990 to 2023 in 204 countries and territories, with forecasts up to 2050.

The researchers did find that more than a quarter of global breast cancer burden is linked to six modifiable risk factors: High red meat consumption is the biggest contributor at nearly 11%, followed by tobacco use at 8%, high blood sugar at 6%, high body mass index at 4%, and alcohol consumption and physical inactivity at 2% each.

The report underscores the need for a comprehensive global response, including stronger prevention policies, greater investment in cancer care infrastructure in low-resource settings, and universal health coverage that includes breast cancer essentials.

"LMICs [low- and middle-income countries] are hit hardest by escalating breast cancer burden as many of these nations grapple with lifestyle and demographic changes alongside health systems that are less equipped than ideal to respond, with shortages of radiotherapy machines, chemotherapy drugs, and pathology labs, and standard treatments that can be quite costly," said co-author Olayinka Ilesanmi, MD, of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in Abuja, Nigeria, in the journal statement. "Although survival continues to improve in [high-income countries], reflecting success in breast cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment, even within HICs, outcomes can still depend on where a woman lives."

Access the full report here.